Tobias Harris of Teneo Intelligence said that those who succeed Shinzo Abe as Japan's next prime minister will face a "difficult year".
The analyst said that after Abe's unexpected resignation last Friday, the next leader needs to solve urgent "major problems".
Waqas Adenwala, an analyst at Japan's Economist Intelligence Unit, warned in a report on Monday that Abe's departure risk left a "political vacuum".
He said: "Compared with the instability of previous governments, Abe's current term is characterized by strong leadership and no political turmoil. But now the unity within the Liberal Democratic Party will deteriorate, because leaders of different parties will try to promote succession candidates from their own teams. "
It is reported that before Abe was re-elected as prime minister in 2012, Japan changed six prime ministers in six years. With the uncertain economic prospects, the market is worried that Japan may see frequent changes of prime ministers again.
However, Harris said that when the country suffers from recession and epidemic spread at the same time, Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will "take prompt action to choose a new leader to ensure stability and continuity".
Abe said that he will perform his duties as prime minister until the next leader is appointed. His current term of office will end in September 2021.
Tomohiko Taniguchi Chihiro, a professor at Keio University, said it was "hard to say" who would succeed Abe as the next Japanese prime minister.
According to a survey conducted by Kyodo News, former Japanese Defense Minister Shi Pomao is the most popular candidate for Shinzo Abe to take over as prime minister. Other names revealed in this survey include Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, who is known as a "diligent and diligent politician" and has "done a lot of things" with Abe in domestic policy.
Specifically, 34.3% of the respondents believe that it is Shi Pomao, the former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, accounting for the first place; Later, he became the official housing chief Yoshihide Suga (14.3%), and the support rate of defense minister Tarō Kōno accounted for 13.6%. According to the report, this shows that when competing with Abe in the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party in 2018, Shi Pomao, who has performed well with local votes such as party members, is expected. The question about the suitable candidate for the next prime minister listed the names of 10 members of the Liberal Democratic Party. The fourth place is the environmental phase Koizumi Jinjiro (10.1%), and the fifth place is the government investigation president kishida fumio (7.5%)
It is expected that short-term economic policies will not change much
But Shigeto Nagai of Oxford Economic Research Institute said that no matter who succeeds Shinzo Abe, as long as the impact of the pandemic still exists, Japan's economic policy may not "change".
Nagai said: "As the national election approaches, any successor of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has no choice but to continue to adopt a proactive fiscal policy to protect vulnerable groups and enterprises from unprecedented disasters, and the opposition will not oppose it."
At the same time, it is expected that the Bank of Japan will continue to "take all measures" to support corporate financing and financial market stability.
Nagai said: "As for long-term structural problems, such as fiscal consolidation in response to aging, now is not the right time to start any new initiatives."