"Collection comes from hobbies, but it can't be done well with enthusiasm. It's dangerous to only see rewards and ignore risks.


Appreciation of stamps is an art, which embodies their value from design, content and aesthetics of patterns to historical background, printing and practical use. As a collection activity, stamp collecting is also popular, and the price of many stamp products keeps rising under the strong demand, which makes stamp collecting an investment activity that can get rich returns. Besides, the whole collection process is also a process of acquiring knowledge, and spiritual pleasure is another kind of gain.


It can be inferred from the phenomenon that the postal market is crowded with people at previous stamp climaxes that the proportion of stamp collectors in China who attach importance to the return on investment is still relatively high. So, what is the difference between the return and risk of stamp investment that investors care about and other investment products?


Market factors have a great influence


Taking foreign (mainly British and American) stamp markets as an example, we can find some laws of the stamp market: the return of stamps generally exceeds the inflation rate and is higher than that of long-term bonds, but generally lower than that of the stock market; The stamp market is risky, and the market is prone to ups and downs. If risk is not considered, stamps are a good investment product compared with bonds, but if risk is considered, stamps are not a good investment product compared with stock market.


However, China's postal market is quite different from developed countries such as Britain and the United States. The differences in postal market environment and system may cause the return and risk of China's stamp market to be different from those of other countries. First, China's stamp market is still immature, and China's stamp market has really developed on a large scale since the early 1980s. It has only been more than 30 years since today, while the British postal market has a history of more than 150 years; Secondly, China's postal market is full of speculation and active trading. There are special philatelic markets in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and other large and medium-sized cities. At the climax of the postal market in 1997, the number of philatelists in China once reached 20 million; Thirdly, China's philatelic stamps are not sold and consumed at the postal window, but only issued through the channels of stamp collectors' subscriptions and stamp companies at all levels, resulting in less use of stamp communication in the near future. At present, the consumption is mainly deposited in the people through various commemorative albums as gifts, and no real loss has been obtained; Finally, the state has a high degree of control over the market, and plans the circulation of stamps in advance. Unlike in western countries, stamps are issued on demand during the issuance period.


Due to the unique market environment in our country, the supply of new mail is insufficient at the initial stage of distribution, which causes market investors to hype the new mail and distort the pricing system of stamps. Therefore, this paper only analyzes the returns and risks of the early stamps issued before January 1, 1983 from 1985 to 2011. These early stamps have been fully consumed and precipitated before the postal market became popular, which can better reflect the fundamentals of China's postal market. Such analysis can avoid the noise caused by the speculation of new or sub-new postal products in the market, and thus get a clearer understanding of the long-term trend of China's postal market."